Cortulua 0–1 Fortaleza FC: Result & Stats

Cortulua

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Fortaleza FC

3/30/2022

Copa Colombia · 3rd RoundEstadio Doce de Octubre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Cortulua31%

×Draw30%

Fortaleza FC40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CortuluaExpected goals in this matchFortaleza FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.98

1.15

Cortulua

0.98

Fortaleza FC

1.15

Fortaleza FC creates 17% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 20 away

0.86

creates per match

1.00

1.29

allows per match

1.10

creates per match

Cortulua

0.86

Fortaleza FC

1.00

allows per match

Cortulua

1.29

Fortaleza FC

1.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cortulua+0.00on par

Fortaleza FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cortulua ↓

Fortaleza FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–114%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Cortulua or draw

60%

Cortulua or Fortaleza FC

70%

Draw or Fortaleza FC

69%

Winning margin

Cortulua wins by 2+

11%

Fortaleza FC wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Cortulua 1+ goals

62%

Cortulua 2+ goals

26%

Cortulua 3+ goals

8%

Fortaleza FC 1+ goals

68%

Fortaleza FC 2+ goals

32%

Fortaleza FC 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Cortulua (draw refunded)

44%

Fortaleza FC (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cortulua at home — creates 0.86, concedes 1.29 · 7 matches

Fortaleza FC away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.10 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cortulua attack 0.86 + Fortaleza FC defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.98

Fortaleza FC attack 1.00 + Cortulua defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Cortulua scores more

31%

level

30%

Fortaleza FC scores more

40%

Fortaleza FC at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Fortaleza FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff