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Cortes vs Ardoi — Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 2019

Cortes
Cortes
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Ardoi
Ardoi
11/3/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 15Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 · Group 15 - 9Estadio San Francisco Javier

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 92+ matches

Cortes42%
×Draw29%
Ardoi30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cortes
1.23
Ardoi
0.99

Cortes creates 24% more chances

Season form · 108 home / 92 away

creates per match

Cortes
1.32
Ardoi
1.22

allows per match

Cortes
0.77
Ardoi
1.14

finishing

Cortes+0.00on par
Ardoi+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cortes ↓

Ardoi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Cortes or draw
70%
Cortes or Ardoi
71%
Draw or Ardoi
58%

Winning margin

Cortes wins by 2+
18%
Ardoi wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Cortes 1+ goals
71%
Cortes 2+ goals
35%
Cortes 3+ goals
13%
Ardoi 1+ goals
63%
Ardoi 2+ goals
26%
Ardoi 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Cortes (draw refunded)
58%
Ardoi (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cortes at home — creates 1.32, concedes 0.77 · 108 matches

Ardoi away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.14 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cortes attack 1.32 + Ardoi defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.23

Ardoi attack 1.22 + Cortes defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Cortes scores more
42%
level
29%
Ardoi scores more
30%

Cortes at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Cortes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cortes 1 – 2 Ardoi

Ardoi beat Cortes 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 on November 3, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio San Francisco Javier in Navarra.