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Ardoi vs Cortes — Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 2019

Ardoi
Ardoi
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Cortes
Cortes
3/15/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 15Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 · Group 15 - 26Estadio El Pinar 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

Ardoi44%
×Draw29%
Cortes28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ardoi
1.27
Cortes
0.95

Ardoi creates 34% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 107 away

creates per match

Ardoi
1.35
Cortes
0.95

allows per match

Ardoi
0.96
Cortes
1.18

finishing

Ardoi+0.00on par
Cortes+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ardoi ↓

Cortes →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Ardoi or draw
72%
Ardoi or Cortes
71%
Draw or Cortes
56%

Winning margin

Ardoi wins by 2+
20%
Cortes wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Ardoi 1+ goals
72%
Ardoi 2+ goals
36%
Ardoi 3+ goals
14%
Cortes 1+ goals
61%
Cortes 2+ goals
25%
Cortes 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Ardoi (draw refunded)
61%
Cortes (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ardoi at home — creates 1.35, concedes 0.96 · 93 matches

Cortes away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.18 · 107 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ardoi attack 1.35 + Cortes defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.27

Cortes attack 0.95 + Ardoi defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Ardoi scores more
44%
level
29%
Cortes scores more
28%

Ardoi at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Ardoi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ardoi vs Cortes

Ardoi and Cortes drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 on March 15, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio El Pinar 1 in Zizur Mayor.