Cornellà 1–1 Tarazona: Result & Stats

Cornellà

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Tarazona

Marc Vilaplana 83'

Dani Pichín 60'

9/17/2023

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 4Ciutat Esportiva Dani Jarque

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Cornellà39%

×Draw32%

Tarazona30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CornellàExpected goals in this matchTarazona

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.03

0.86

Cornellà

1.03

Tarazona

0.86

Cornellà creates 20% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 38 away

0.89

creates per match

0.84

0.89

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

Cornellà

0.89

Tarazona

0.84

allows per match

Cornellà

0.89

Tarazona

1.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cornellà+0.00on par

Tarazona+0.00on par

Total goals

Under71
Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cornellà ↓

Tarazona →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–113%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

56%44%2.5

29%71%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Cornellà or draw

70%

Cornellà or Tarazona

68%

Draw or Tarazona

61%

Winning margin

Cornellà wins by 2+

15%

Tarazona wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Cornellà 1+ goals

64%

Cornellà 2+ goals

28%

Cornellà 3+ goals

9%

Tarazona 1+ goals

58%

Tarazona 2+ goals

21%

Tarazona 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Cornellà (draw refunded)

57%

Tarazona (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cornellà at home — creates 0.89, concedes 0.89 · 19 matches

Tarazona away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.18 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cornellà attack 0.89 + Tarazona defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.03

Tarazona attack 0.84 + Cornellà defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Cornellà scores more

39%

level

32%

Tarazona scores more

30%

Cornellà at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Cornellà will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

39'

K. Rios

43'

J. Carlos

54'

K. Rios

54'

K. Rios

58'

David Cubillas← Andreu Guiu

60'

Dani Pichín

66'

José Mas← Kike López

66'

Luisao Macías← Marc Tenas

67'

Fer Cano← Cristian Dieste

67'

Mikel Kortazar← M. Cocca

78'

Mamor Niang← Toni Arranz

82'

Guille Alonso← Carlos Javier

82'

M. Errahaly← Dani Pichín

83'

Marc Vilaplana

86'

Javi Jiménez← Canario

86'

Koffi← Claudio

Cornellà

Tarazona

⚽

▼

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⚽

▼

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▼

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Manager: Gonzalo Riutort

66'▲José Mas←▼Kike López

66'▲Luisao Macías←▼Marc Tenas

78'▲Mamor Niang←▼Toni Arranz

86'▲Javi Jiménez←▼Canario

86'▲Koffi←▼Claudio

Cornellà substitutes

MasMacíasNiangJiménezKoffiCherradiGarridoGonpiGorritiSomaAyalaMeikher

Manager: Molo

58'▲David Cubillas←▼Andreu Guiu

67'▲Fer Cano←▼Cristian Dieste

67'▲Mikel Kortazar←▼M. Cocca

82'▲Guille Alonso←▼Carlos Javier

82'▲M. Errahaly←▼Dani Pichín

Tarazona substitutes

CubillasCanoKortazarAlonsoErrahalyGilCarroBuenoRamírez