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Çorluspor 1947 vs Çankaya FK — League #552 2026

Çorluspor 1947
Çorluspor 1947
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Çankaya FK
Çankaya FK
M. Arslantas 56'
S. Ilgaz 48'
12/7/2025League #552League #552 · Group 1 - 12Mustafa Kemal Atatürk Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Çorluspor 194758%
×Draw22%
Çankaya FK20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Çorluspor 1947
2.00
Çankaya FK
1.10

Çorluspor 1947 creates 82% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 19 away

creates per match

Çorluspor 1947
2.67
Çankaya FK
1.21

allows per match

Çorluspor 1947
1.00
Çankaya FK
1.32

finishing

Çorluspor 1947+0.00on par
Çankaya FK+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Çorluspor 1947 ↓

Çankaya FK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Çorluspor 1947 or draw
80%
Çorluspor 1947 or Çankaya FK
78%
Draw or Çankaya FK
42%

Winning margin

Çorluspor 1947 wins by 2+
35%
Çankaya FK wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Çorluspor 1947 1+ goals
86%
Çorluspor 1947 2+ goals
59%
Çorluspor 1947 3+ goals
32%
Çankaya FK 1+ goals
67%
Çankaya FK 2+ goals
30%
Çankaya FK 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Çorluspor 1947 (draw refunded)
74%
Çankaya FK (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Çorluspor 1947 at home — creates 2.67, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

Çankaya FK away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.32 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Çorluspor 1947 attack 2.67 + Çankaya FK defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 2.00

Çankaya FK attack 1.21 + Çorluspor 1947 defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Çorluspor 1947 scores more
58%
level
22%
Çankaya FK scores more
20%

Çorluspor 1947 at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Çorluspor 1947 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

48'
S. Ilgaz↳ C. Celikel
56'
M. Arslantas↳ B. Sungur

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #552: Çorluspor 1947 1–1 Çankaya FK

Çorluspor 1947 and Çankaya FK drew 1-1 in League #552 on December 7, 2025.

Goals: S. Ilgaz (48'), M. Arslantas (56').

The match was played at Mustafa Kemal Atatürk Stadyumu in Velimeşe.