Cork City 3–1 Galway United: Result & Stats

Cork City

FT

3 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Galway United

1/29/2026

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Cork City31%

×Draw21%

Galway United48%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Cork CityExpected goals in this matchGalway United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

2.07

Cork City

1.65

Galway United

2.07

Galway United creates 25% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 7 away

1.86

creates per match

1.71

2.43

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Cork City

1.86

Galway United

1.71

allows per match

Cork City

2.43

Galway United

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cork City+0.00on par

Galway United+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cork City ↓

Galway United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–15%

0–25%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

88%12%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Cork City or draw

52%

Cork City or Galway United

79%

Draw or Galway United

69%

Winning margin

Cork City wins by 2+

15%

Galway United wins by 2+

27%

Team goals

Cork City 1+ goals

81%

Cork City 2+ goals

49%

Cork City 3+ goals

23%

Galway United 1+ goals

87%

Galway United 2+ goals

61%

Galway United 3+ goals

34%

Draw no bet

Cork City (draw refunded)

40%

Galway United (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cork City at home — creates 1.86, concedes 2.43 · 7 matches

Galway United away — creates 1.71, concedes 1.43 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cork City attack 1.86 + Galway United defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.65

Galway United attack 1.71 + Cork City defence 2.43 → ÷2 → 2.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Cork City scores more

31%

level

21%

Galway United scores more

48%

Galway United at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Galway United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff