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Cork City vs Galway United — Premier Division 2019

Cork City
Cork City
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Galway United
Galway United
2/14/2025Premier DivisionPremier Division · Round 1Turners Cross

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Cork City36%
×Draw30%
Galway United34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cork City
1.09
Galway United
1.04

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 63 home / 48 away

creates per match

Cork City
0.97
Galway United
0.90

allows per match

Cork City
1.19
Galway United
1.21

finishing

Cork City+0.00on par
Galway United+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cork City ↓

Galway United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Cork City or draw
66%
Cork City or Galway United
70%
Draw or Galway United
64%

Winning margin

Cork City wins by 2+
15%
Galway United wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Cork City 1+ goals
66%
Cork City 2+ goals
30%
Cork City 3+ goals
10%
Galway United 1+ goals
65%
Galway United 2+ goals
28%
Galway United 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Cork City (draw refunded)
52%
Galway United (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cork City at home — creates 0.97, concedes 1.19 · 63 matches

Galway United away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.21 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cork City attack 0.97 + Galway United defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.09

Galway United attack 0.90 + Cork City defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Cork City scores more
36%
level
30%
Galway United scores more
34%

Cork City at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Cork City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cork City vs Galway United

Cork City and Galway United drew 2-2 in Premier Division on February 14, 2025.

The match was played at Turners Cross in Cork.