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Cork City vs Cabinteely — First Division 2019

Cork City
Cork City
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Cabinteely
Cabinteely
6/11/2021First DivisionFirst Division · Round 11Turner's Cross

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Cork City53%
×Draw24%
Cabinteely23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cork City
1.73
Cabinteely
1.07

Cork City creates 62% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 36 away

creates per match

Cork City
1.97
Cabinteely
1.39

allows per match

Cork City
0.75
Cabinteely
1.50

finishing

Cork City+0.00on par
Cabinteely+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cork City ↓

Cabinteely →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Cork City or draw
77%
Cork City or Cabinteely
76%
Draw or Cabinteely
47%

Winning margin

Cork City wins by 2+
29%
Cabinteely wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Cork City 1+ goals
82%
Cork City 2+ goals
52%
Cork City 3+ goals
25%
Cabinteely 1+ goals
66%
Cabinteely 2+ goals
29%
Cabinteely 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Cork City (draw refunded)
69%
Cabinteely (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cork City at home — creates 1.97, concedes 0.75 · 60 matches

Cabinteely away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.50 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cork City attack 1.97 + Cabinteely defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.73

Cabinteely attack 1.39 + Cork City defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Cork City scores more
53%
level
24%
Cabinteely scores more
23%

Cork City at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Cork City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cork City vs Cabinteely

Cabinteely beat Cork City 2-0 in First Division on June 11, 2021.

The match was played at Turner's Cross in Cork.