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Cabinteely vs Cork City — First Division 2019

Cabinteely
Cabinteely
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Cork City
Cork City
8/20/2021First DivisionFirst Division · Round 20Stradbrook Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Cabinteely21%
×Draw26%
Cork City54%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cabinteely
0.87
Cork City
1.56

Cork City creates 79% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 58 away

creates per match

Cabinteely
1.00
Cork City
1.59

allows per match

Cabinteely
1.54
Cork City
0.74

finishing

Cabinteely+0.00on par
Cork City+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cabinteely ↓

Cork City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–114%
0–211%
0–36%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Cabinteely or draw
46%
Cabinteely or Cork City
74%
Draw or Cork City
79%

Winning margin

Cabinteely wins by 2+
7%
Cork City wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Cabinteely 1+ goals
58%
Cabinteely 2+ goals
22%
Cabinteely 3+ goals
6%
Cork City 1+ goals
79%
Cork City 2+ goals
46%
Cork City 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Cabinteely (draw refunded)
28%
Cork City (draw refunded)
72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cabinteely at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.54 · 39 matches

Cork City away — creates 1.59, concedes 0.74 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cabinteely attack 1.00 + Cork City defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.87

Cork City attack 1.59 + Cabinteely defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Cabinteely scores more
21%
level
26%
Cork City scores more
54%

Cork City at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Cork City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First Division: Cabinteely 2–2 Cork City

Cabinteely and Cork City drew 2-2 in First Division on August 20, 2021.

The match was played at Stradbrook Road in Dublin.