Coritiba 0–0 Atletico Paranaense: Result & Stats

Coritiba

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Atletico Paranaense

10/19/2025

Serie B · Round 33Couto Pereira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Coritiba43%

×Draw26%

Atletico Paranaense31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CoritibaExpected goals in this matchAtletico Paranaense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

1.16

Coritiba

1.41

Atletico Paranaense

1.16

Coritiba creates 22% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 6 away

1.58

creates per match

1.38

0.94

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

Coritiba

1.58

Atletico Paranaense

1.38

allows per match

Coritiba

0.94

Atletico Paranaense

1.23

-0.36scores less than expected

finishing

-0.05on par

finishing

Coritiba-0.36scores less

Atletico Paranaense-0.05on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Coritiba ↓

Atletico Paranaense →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Coritiba or draw

69%

Coritiba or Atletico Paranaense

74%

Draw or Atletico Paranaense

57%

Winning margin

Coritiba wins by 2+

20%

Atletico Paranaense wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Coritiba 1+ goals

76%

Coritiba 2+ goals

41%

Coritiba 3+ goals

17%

Atletico Paranaense 1+ goals

69%

Atletico Paranaense 2+ goals

32%

Atletico Paranaense 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Coritiba (draw refunded)

58%

Atletico Paranaense (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Coritiba at home — creates 1.58, concedes 0.94 · 9 matches

Atletico Paranaense away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.23 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Coritiba attack 1.58 + Atletico Paranaense defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.41

Atletico Paranaense attack 1.38 + Coritiba defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Coritiba scores more

43%

level

26%

Atletico Paranaense scores more

31%

Coritiba at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Coritiba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

B. Zapelli

Atletico Paranaense · F

7.9

Match Events

8'

16'

26'

26'

31'

33'

37'

45+3'

46'

46'

Lucas Ronier← Gustavo Coutinho

46'

Leozinho← Leo Derik

52'

Kevin ViverosPenalty cancelled

56'

Sebastian Gomez

57'

Santos

71'

K. Velasco← Patrick

71'

Luiz Fernando← G. Benavidez

72'

Zeca← Josue

72'

Vini Paulista← Iury Castilho

80'

C. de Pena← Filipe Machado

81'

85'

87'

87'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CoritibaAtletico

Overview

41%Possession59%

10Total Shots15

2Corners5

14Fouls18

Shots

10Total Shots15

2On Target2

7Off Target9

1Blocked4

4Inside Box7

6Outside Box8

Passing

41%Possession59%

277Total Passes380

198Accurate Passes320

71%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

14Fouls18

5Yellow Cards6

1Red Cards0

Match Recap: Coritiba vs Atletico Paranaense

Coritiba and Atletico Paranaense drew 0-0 in Serie B on October 19, 2025.

Atletico Paranaense controlled possession (59%) and registered 15 shots to 10.

The match was played at Couto Pereira in Curitiba.

Coritiba vs Atletico Paranaense — Serie B 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Coritiba vs Atletico Paranaense