Atletico Paranaense 0–1 Coritiba: Result & Stats

Atletico Paranaense

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Coritiba

S. Gomez 64'

6/28/2025

Serie B · Round 14Ligga Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Atletico Paranaense55%

×Draw24%

Coritiba21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atletico ParanaenseExpected goals in this matchCoritiba

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

0.96

Atletico Paranaense

1.71

Coritiba

0.96

Atletico Paranaense creates 78% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 10 away

1.92

creates per match

1.03

0.89

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Atletico Paranaense

1.92

Coritiba

1.03

allows per match

Atletico Paranaense

0.89

Coritiba

1.50

-0.52scores less than expected

finishing

-0.53scores less than expected

finishing

Atletico Paranaense-0.52scores less

Coritiba-0.53scores less

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Paranaense ↓

Coritiba →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Atletico Paranaense or draw

79%

Atletico Paranaense or Coritiba

76%

Draw or Coritiba

45%

Winning margin

Atletico Paranaense wins by 2+

30%

Coritiba wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Atletico Paranaense 1+ goals

82%

Atletico Paranaense 2+ goals

51%

Atletico Paranaense 3+ goals

24%

Coritiba 1+ goals

62%

Coritiba 2+ goals

25%

Coritiba 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Atletico Paranaense (draw refunded)

72%

Coritiba (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Paranaense at home — creates 1.92, concedes 0.89 · 5 matches

Coritiba away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.50 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Paranaense attack 1.92 + Coritiba defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.71

Coritiba attack 1.03 + Atletico Paranaense defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Atletico Paranaense scores more

55%

level

24%

Coritiba scores more

21%

Atletico Paranaense at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Atletico Paranaense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

Josue

Coritiba · M

7.9

Match Events

61'

Clayson← Iury Castilho

61'

Gustavo Coutinho← Dellatorre

64'

S. Gomez

66'

B. Zapelli← Giuliano

66'

Renan Peixoto← Alan Kardec

75'

Leozinho← Habraao

77'

Geovane← Filipe Machado

77'

Wallisson← S. Gomez

83'

Joao Cruz← Patrick

83'

Tevis← Luiz Fernando

85'

C. de Pena← Josue

88'

João Cruz

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AtleticoCoritiba

Overview

44%Possession56%

20Total Shots10

7Corners4

15Fouls9

Shots

20Total Shots10

3On Target4

13Off Target3

4Blocked3

14Inside Box7

6Outside Box3

Passing

44%Possession56%

321Total Passes438

255Accurate Passes365

79%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

15Fouls9

1Yellow Cards0