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Coritiba vs America Mineiro — Serie B 2026

Coritiba
Coritiba
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
America Mineiro
America Mineiro
6/20/2024Serie BSerie B · Round 11Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 86+ matches

Coritiba44%
×Draw31%
America Mineiro25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Coritiba
1.11
America Mineiro
0.75

Coritiba creates 48% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 86 away

creates per match

Coritiba
1.27
America Mineiro
0.81

allows per match

Coritiba
0.69
America Mineiro
0.95

finishing

Coritiba+0.00on par
America Mineiro+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Coritiba ↓

America Mineiro →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–112%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Coritiba or draw
75%
Coritiba or America Mineiro
69%
Draw or America Mineiro
56%

Winning margin

Coritiba wins by 2+
18%
America Mineiro wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Coritiba 1+ goals
67%
Coritiba 2+ goals
30%
Coritiba 3+ goals
10%
America Mineiro 1+ goals
53%
America Mineiro 2+ goals
17%
America Mineiro 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Coritiba (draw refunded)
64%
America Mineiro (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Coritiba at home — creates 1.27, concedes 0.69 · 95 matches

America Mineiro away — creates 0.81, concedes 0.95 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Coritiba attack 1.27 + America Mineiro defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.11

America Mineiro attack 0.81 + Coritiba defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Coritiba scores more
44%
level
31%
America Mineiro scores more
25%

Coritiba at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Coritiba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Coritiba vs America Mineiro

Coritiba beat America Mineiro 1-0 in Serie B on June 20, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira in Curitiba, Paraná.