America Mineiro 0–3 Coritiba: Result & Stats

America Mineiro

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Coritiba

11/8/2023

Serie A · Round 33Estádio Raimundo Sampaio

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

America Mineiro50%

×Draw25%

Coritiba26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

America MineiroExpected goals in this matchCoritiba

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

1.08

America Mineiro

1.61

Coritiba

1.08

America Mineiro creates 49% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 67 away

1.14

creates per match

1.04

1.11

allows per match

2.09

creates per match

America Mineiro

1.14

Coritiba

1.04

allows per match

America Mineiro

1.11

Coritiba

2.09

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

America Mineiro+0.00on par

Coritiba+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

America Mineiro ↓

Coritiba →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

America Mineiro or draw

74%

America Mineiro or Coritiba

75%

Draw or Coritiba

50%

Winning margin

America Mineiro wins by 2+

26%

Coritiba wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

America Mineiro 1+ goals

80%

America Mineiro 2+ goals

48%

America Mineiro 3+ goals

22%

Coritiba 1+ goals

66%

Coritiba 2+ goals

29%

Coritiba 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

America Mineiro (draw refunded)

66%

Coritiba (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

America Mineiro at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.11 · 76 matches

Coritiba away — creates 1.04, concedes 2.09 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

America Mineiro attack 1.14 + Coritiba defence 2.09 → ÷2 → 1.61

Coritiba attack 1.04 + America Mineiro defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

America Mineiro scores more

50%

level

25%

Coritiba scores more

26%

America Mineiro at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "America Mineiro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff