Corinthians 1–0 Chapecoense-sc: Result & Stats

Corinthians

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Chapecoense-sc

Roger Guedes 90+8'

11/2/2021

Serie A · Round 29Neo Química Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Corinthians65%

×Draw21%

Chapecoense-sc14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CorinthiansExpected goals in this matchChapecoense-sc

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.89

0.73

Corinthians

1.89

Chapecoense-sc

0.73

Corinthians creates 159% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 8 away

1.40

creates per match

0.52

0.95

allows per match

2.38

creates per match

Corinthians

1.40

Chapecoense-sc

0.52

allows per match

Corinthians

0.95

Chapecoense-sc

2.38

+0.12scores more than expected

finishing

-0.14scores less than expected

finishing

Corinthians+0.12scores more

Chapecoense-sc-0.14scores less

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Corinthians ↓

Chapecoense-sc →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–15%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–110%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

48%52%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Corinthians or draw

86%

Corinthians or Chapecoense-sc

79%

Draw or Chapecoense-sc

35%

Winning margin

Corinthians wins by 2+

39%

Chapecoense-sc wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Corinthians 1+ goals

85%

Corinthians 2+ goals

56%

Corinthians 3+ goals

29%

Chapecoense-sc 1+ goals

52%

Chapecoense-sc 2+ goals

17%

Chapecoense-sc 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Corinthians (draw refunded)

82%

Chapecoense-sc (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Corinthians at home — creates 1.40, concedes 0.95 · 29 matches

Chapecoense-sc away — creates 0.52, concedes 2.38 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Corinthians attack 1.40 + Chapecoense-sc defence 2.38 → ÷2 → 1.89

Chapecoense-sc attack 0.52 + Corinthians defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Corinthians scores more

65%

level

21%

Chapecoense-sc scores more

14%

Corinthians at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Corinthians will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

123

Roger Guedes

Corinthians · F

8.3

Match Events

40'

Anselmo

42'

R. Augusto

46'

Gustavo Mosquito← Gabriel

62'

Keiller

67'

Henrique Almeida← Kaio Nunes

68'

H. Almeida

75'

Jô← Du Queiroz

76'

Ronei← Anselmo Ramon

77'

Ezequiel

77'

Ezequiel← Denner

82'

Adson← Gabriel Pereira

87'

Rodriguinho← Mike

88'

Alan Santos← Moisés Ribeiro

90+8'

Roger Guedes↳ Jô

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CorinthiansChapecoense-sc

Overview

79%Possession21%

18Total Shots2

14Corners0

12Fouls19

Shots

18Total Shots2

5On Target2

9Off Target0

4Blocked0

13Inside Box1

5Outside Box1

Passing

79%Possession21%

747Total Passes200

676Accurate Passes136

90%Pass Accuracy68%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

12Fouls19

1Yellow Cards4