Chapecoense-sc 0–1 Corinthians: Result & Stats

Chapecoense-sc

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Corinthians

Jô 60'

7/9/2021

Serie A · Round 10Arena Condá

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Chapecoense-sc40%

×Draw27%

Corinthians33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chapecoense-scExpected goals in this matchCorinthians

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

1.14

Chapecoense-sc

1.30

Corinthians

1.14

Chapecoense-sc creates 14% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 28 away

1.31

creates per match

0.85

1.43

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Chapecoense-sc

1.31

Corinthians

0.85

allows per match

Chapecoense-sc

1.43

Corinthians

1.29

-0.11scores less than expected

finishing

+0.11scores more than expected

finishing

Chapecoense-sc-0.11scores less

Corinthians+0.11scores more

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chapecoense-sc ↓

Corinthians →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Chapecoense-sc or draw

67%

Chapecoense-sc or Corinthians

73%

Draw or Corinthians

60%

Winning margin

Chapecoense-sc wins by 2+

18%

Corinthians wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Chapecoense-sc 1+ goals

73%

Chapecoense-sc 2+ goals

37%

Chapecoense-sc 3+ goals

14%

Corinthians 1+ goals

68%

Corinthians 2+ goals

32%

Corinthians 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Chapecoense-sc (draw refunded)

55%

Corinthians (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chapecoense-sc at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.43 · 5 matches

Corinthians away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.29 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chapecoense-sc attack 1.31 + Corinthians defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.30

Corinthians attack 0.85 + Chapecoense-sc defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Chapecoense-sc scores more

40%

level

27%

Corinthians scores more

33%

Chapecoense-sc at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Chapecoense-sc will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

12

Cássio

Corinthians · G

7.7

Match Events

46'

Ravanelli← Felipe Silva

46'

Fernandinho← Alan Santos

54'

Xavier← V. Cantillo

58'

Ravanelli

60'

Jô↳ Gabriel

71'

Anselmo Ramon← Ravanelli

71'

Geuvânio← Fabinho

71'

Marquinhos← Mateus Vital

78'

Fernandinho

79'

Foguinho← Ezequiel

82'

Anderson Leite

90'

Adson← Gustavo Mosquito

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Chapecoense-scCorinthians

Overview

42%Possession58%

14Total Shots12

5Corners8

17Fouls10

Shots

14Total Shots12

4On Target5

6Off Target5

4Blocked2

7Inside Box8

7Outside Box4

Passing

42%Possession58%

395Total Passes548

323Accurate Passes481

82%Pass Accuracy88%

Goalkeeping

4Saves4

Discipline

17Fouls10

3Yellow Cards0

2Offsides0