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Corinthians vs Atletico Paranaense — League #73 2026

Corinthians
Corinthiansadvanced
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Atletico Paranaense
Atletico Paranaense
9/11/2025League #73League #73 · Quarter-finalsNeo Quimica Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Corinthians58%
×Draw26%
Atletico Paranaense16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Corinthians
1.50
Atletico Paranaense
0.63

Corinthians creates 138% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 4 away

creates per match

Corinthians
1.00
Atletico Paranaense
1.25

allows per match

Corinthians
0.00
Atletico Paranaense
2.00

finishing

Corinthians+0.00on par
Atletico Paranaense+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Corinthians ↓

Atletico Paranaense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–17%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Corinthians or draw
84%
Corinthians or Atletico Paranaense
74%
Draw or Atletico Paranaense
42%

Winning margin

Corinthians wins by 2+
31%
Atletico Paranaense wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Corinthians 1+ goals
78%
Corinthians 2+ goals
44%
Corinthians 3+ goals
19%
Atletico Paranaense 1+ goals
47%
Atletico Paranaense 2+ goals
13%
Atletico Paranaense 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Corinthians (draw refunded)
79%
Atletico Paranaense (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Corinthians at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.00 · 5 matches

Atletico Paranaense away — creates 1.25, concedes 2.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Corinthians attack 1.00 + Atletico Paranaense defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.50

Atletico Paranaense attack 1.25 + Corinthians defence 0.00 → ÷2 → 0.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Corinthians scores more
58%
level
26%
Atletico Paranaense scores more
16%

Corinthians at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Corinthians will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Corinthians vs Atletico Paranaense

Corinthians beat Atletico Paranaense 2-0 in League #73 on September 11, 2025.

The match was played at Neo Quimica Arena in Sao Paulo.