Corinthians 5–2 Atletico Paranaense: Result & Stats

Corinthians

FT

5 – 2

HT: 2 – 2

Atletico Paranaense

10/17/2024

Serie A · Round 30Neo Química Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 13+ matches

Corinthians46%

×Draw28%

Atletico Paranaense26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CorinthiansExpected goals in this matchAtletico Paranaense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

0.90

Corinthians

1.30

Atletico Paranaense

0.90

Corinthians creates 44% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 13 away

1.26

creates per match

0.77

1.03

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

Corinthians

1.26

Atletico Paranaense

0.77

allows per match

Corinthians

1.03

Atletico Paranaense

1.34

-0.08on par

finishing

+0.15scores more than expected

finishing

Corinthians-0.08on par

Atletico Paranaense+0.15scores more

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Corinthians ↓

Atletico Paranaense →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Corinthians or draw

74%

Corinthians or Atletico Paranaense

72%

Draw or Atletico Paranaense

54%

Winning margin

Corinthians wins by 2+

21%

Atletico Paranaense wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Corinthians 1+ goals

73%

Corinthians 2+ goals

37%

Corinthians 3+ goals

14%

Atletico Paranaense 1+ goals

59%

Atletico Paranaense 2+ goals

23%

Atletico Paranaense 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Corinthians (draw refunded)

64%

Atletico Paranaense (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Corinthians at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.03 · 17 matches

Atletico Paranaense away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.34 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Corinthians attack 1.26 + Atletico Paranaense defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.30

Atletico Paranaense attack 0.77 + Corinthians defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Corinthians scores more

46%

level

28%

Atletico Paranaense scores more

26%

Corinthians at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Corinthians will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff