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Corinthians vs America de Cali — CONMEBOL Sudamericana 2019

Corinthians
Corinthians
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
America de Cali
America de Cali
5/7/2025CONMEBOL SudamericanaCONMEBOL Sudamericana · Group Stage - 4Neo Química Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Corinthians58%
×Draw25%
America de Cali17%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Corinthians
1.63
America de Cali
0.76

Corinthians creates 114% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 11 away

creates per match

Corinthians
1.90
America de Cali
0.91

allows per match

Corinthians
0.60
America de Cali
1.36

finishing

Corinthians+0.00on par
America de Cali+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Corinthians ↓

America de Cali →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Corinthians or draw
83%
Corinthians or America de Cali
75%
Draw or America de Cali
42%

Winning margin

Corinthians wins by 2+
32%
America de Cali wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Corinthians 1+ goals
80%
Corinthians 2+ goals
48%
Corinthians 3+ goals
22%
America de Cali 1+ goals
53%
America de Cali 2+ goals
18%
America de Cali 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Corinthians (draw refunded)
77%
America de Cali (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Corinthians at home — creates 1.90, concedes 0.60 · 20 matches

America de Cali away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.36 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Corinthians attack 1.90 + America de Cali defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.63

America de Cali attack 0.91 + Corinthians defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Corinthians scores more
58%
level
25%
America de Cali scores more
17%

Corinthians at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Corinthians will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Corinthians vs America de Cali

Corinthians and America de Cali drew 1-1 in CONMEBOL Sudamericana on May 7, 2025.

The match was played at Neo Química Arena in São Paulo.