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America de Cali vs Corinthians — CONMEBOL Sudamericana 2019

America de Cali
America de Cali
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Corinthians
Corinthians
4/9/2025CONMEBOL SudamericanaCONMEBOL Sudamericana · Group Stage - 2Estadio Olímpico Pascual Guerrero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

America de Cali34%
×Draw31%
Corinthians35%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

America de Cali
0.97
Corinthians
0.98

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 10 home / 19 away

creates per match

America de Cali
1.00
Corinthians
1.16

allows per match

America de Cali
0.80
Corinthians
0.95

finishing

America de Cali+0.00on par
Corinthians+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

America de Cali ↓

Corinthians →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–114%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–014%
1–114%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

America de Cali or draw
65%
America de Cali or Corinthians
69%
Draw or Corinthians
66%

Winning margin

America de Cali wins by 2+
13%
Corinthians wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

America de Cali 1+ goals
62%
America de Cali 2+ goals
25%
America de Cali 3+ goals
7%
Corinthians 1+ goals
62%
Corinthians 2+ goals
26%
Corinthians 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

America de Cali (draw refunded)
50%
Corinthians (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

America de Cali at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.80 · 10 matches

Corinthians away — creates 1.16, concedes 0.95 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

America de Cali attack 1.00 + Corinthians defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.97

Corinthians attack 1.16 + America de Cali defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

America de Cali scores more
34%
level
31%
Corinthians scores more
35%

Corinthians at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Corinthians will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

CONMEBOL Sudamericana: America de Cali 1–1 Corinthians

America de Cali and Corinthians drew 1-1 in CONMEBOL Sudamericana on April 9, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico Pascual Guerrero in Cali.