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Corinthians U20 vs Água Santa U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

Corinthians U20
Corinthians U20
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Água Santa U20
Água Santa U20
Renato Santos 80'
Pedrinho 45' (pen)
5/17/2024Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 6Parque São Jorge

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Corinthians U2060%
×Draw21%
Água Santa U2019%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Corinthians U20
2.06
Água Santa U20
1.07

Corinthians U20 creates 93% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 16 away

creates per match

Corinthians U20
2.12
Água Santa U20
1.19

allows per match

Corinthians U20
0.96
Água Santa U20
2.00

finishing

Corinthians U20+0.00on par
Água Santa U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 60Under: 4060%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 57No: 4357%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Corinthians U20 ↓

Água Santa U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Corinthians U20 or draw
81%
Corinthians U20 or Água Santa U20
79%
Draw or Água Santa U20
40%

Winning margin

Corinthians U20 wins by 2+
37%
Água Santa U20 wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Corinthians U20 1+ goals
87%
Corinthians U20 2+ goals
61%
Corinthians U20 3+ goals
34%
Água Santa U20 1+ goals
66%
Água Santa U20 2+ goals
29%
Água Santa U20 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Corinthians U20 (draw refunded)
76%
Água Santa U20 (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Corinthians U20 at home — creates 2.12, concedes 0.96 · 25 matches

Água Santa U20 away — creates 1.19, concedes 2.00 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Corinthians U20 attack 2.12 + Água Santa U20 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.06

Água Santa U20 attack 1.19 + Corinthians U20 defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Corinthians U20 scores more
60%
level
21%
Água Santa U20 scores more
19%

Corinthians U20 at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Corinthians U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45'
PedrinhoPenalty
80'
Renato Santos
87'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Paulista - U20: Corinthians U20 2–0 Água Santa U20

Corinthians U20 beat Água Santa U20 2-0 in Paulista - U20 on May 17, 2024.

Goals: Pedrinho (45' pen), Renato Santos (80').

The match was played at Parque São Jorge in São Paulo, São Paulo.