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Água Santa U20 vs Corinthians U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

Água Santa U20
Água Santa U20
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Corinthians U20
Corinthians U20
Unknown 67'
Unknown 40', 20'
5/23/2025Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 5Estádio Distrital do Jardim Inamar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Água Santa U2039%
×Draw26%
Corinthians U2034%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Água Santa U20
1.37
Corinthians U20
1.26

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 24 away

creates per match

Água Santa U20
1.53
Corinthians U20
1.46

allows per match

Água Santa U20
1.06
Corinthians U20
1.21

finishing

Água Santa U20+0.00on par
Corinthians U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 51Over: 4951%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes: 53No: 4753%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Água Santa U20 ↓

Corinthians U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Água Santa U20 or draw
66%
Água Santa U20 or Corinthians U20
74%
Draw or Corinthians U20
61%

Winning margin

Água Santa U20 wins by 2+
18%
Corinthians U20 wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Água Santa U20 1+ goals
75%
Água Santa U20 2+ goals
40%
Água Santa U20 3+ goals
16%
Corinthians U20 1+ goals
72%
Corinthians U20 2+ goals
36%
Corinthians U20 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Água Santa U20 (draw refunded)
53%
Corinthians U20 (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Água Santa U20 at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.06 · 17 matches

Corinthians U20 away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.21 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Água Santa U20 attack 1.53 + Corinthians U20 defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.37

Corinthians U20 attack 1.46 + Água Santa U20 defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Água Santa U20 scores more
39%
level
26%
Corinthians U20 scores more
34%

Água Santa U20 at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Água Santa U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'
40'
67'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Água Santa U20 vs Corinthians U20

Corinthians U20 beat Água Santa U20 2-1 in Paulista - U20 on May 23, 2025.

Goals: ? (20', 40', 67').

The match was played at Estádio Distrital do Jardim Inamar in São Paulo, São Paulo.