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Coria CF vs Ceuta — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Coria CF
Coria CF
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Ceuta
Ceuta
11/10/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 10Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 13Estadio Guadalquivir

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Coria CF26%
×Draw30%
Ceuta43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Coria CF
0.83
Ceuta
1.15

Ceuta creates 39% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 15 away

creates per match

Coria CF
1.07
Ceuta
1.13

allows per match

Coria CF
1.18
Ceuta
0.60

finishing

Coria CF+0.00on par
Ceuta+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Coria CF ↓

Ceuta →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–116%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–15%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Coria CF or draw
57%
Coria CF or Ceuta
70%
Draw or Ceuta
74%

Winning margin

Coria CF wins by 2+
9%
Ceuta wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Coria CF 1+ goals
56%
Coria CF 2+ goals
20%
Coria CF 3+ goals
5%
Ceuta 1+ goals
68%
Ceuta 2+ goals
32%
Ceuta 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Coria CF (draw refunded)
38%
Ceuta (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Coria CF at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.18 · 94 matches

Ceuta away — creates 1.13, concedes 0.60 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Coria CF attack 1.07 + Ceuta defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.83

Ceuta attack 1.13 + Coria CF defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Coria CF scores more
26%
level
30%
Ceuta scores more
43%

Ceuta at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Ceuta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Coria CF vs Ceuta

Coria CF and Ceuta drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on November 10, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Guadalquivir in Coria del Río.