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Ceuta vs Coria CF — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Ceuta
Ceuta
CANC
00:00
Coria CF
Coria CF
3/29/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 10Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 32Estadio Municipal Alfonso Murube

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Ceuta63%
×Draw21%
Coria CF16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ceuta
2.04
Coria CF
0.91

Ceuta creates 124% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 95 away

creates per match

Ceuta
2.40
Coria CF
0.95

allows per match

Ceuta
0.87
Coria CF
1.67

finishing

Ceuta+0.00on par
Coria CF+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ceuta ↓

Coria CF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Ceuta or draw
84%
Ceuta or Coria CF
79%
Draw or Coria CF
37%

Winning margin

Ceuta wins by 2+
39%
Coria CF wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Ceuta 1+ goals
87%
Ceuta 2+ goals
60%
Ceuta 3+ goals
33%
Coria CF 1+ goals
60%
Coria CF 2+ goals
23%
Coria CF 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Ceuta (draw refunded)
80%
Coria CF (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ceuta at home — creates 2.40, concedes 0.87 · 15 matches

Coria CF away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.67 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ceuta attack 2.40 + Coria CF defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 2.04

Coria CF attack 0.95 + Ceuta defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Ceuta scores more
63%
level
21%
Coria CF scores more
16%

Ceuta at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Ceuta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ceuta face Coria CF (Tercera División RFEF - Group 10)

Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 returns with Ceuta hosting Coria CF. Match starts March 29, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Ceuta host Coria CF at Estadio Municipal Alfonso Murube.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.