Coria CF vs Antoniano: Preview & Prediction

Coria CF

CANC

22:00

Antoniano

5/16/2020

Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 38Estadio Guadalquivir

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Coria CF34%

×Draw29%

Antoniano36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Coria CFExpected goals in this matchAntoniano

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.06

1.10

Coria CF

1.06

Antoniano

1.10

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 94 home / 57 away

1.07

creates per match

1.02

1.18

allows per match

1.04

creates per match

Coria CF

1.07

Antoniano

1.02

allows per match

Coria CF

1.18

Antoniano

1.04

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Coria CF+0.00on par

Antoniano+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Coria CF ↓

Antoniano →

0–012%

0–113%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–02%

3–13%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Coria CF or draw

64%

Coria CF or Antoniano

71%

Draw or Antoniano

66%

Winning margin

Coria CF wins by 2+

13%

Antoniano wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Coria CF 1+ goals

65%

Coria CF 2+ goals

29%

Coria CF 3+ goals

Antoniano 1+ goals

67%

Antoniano 2+ goals

30%

Antoniano 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Coria CF (draw refunded)

49%

Antoniano (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Coria CF at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.18 · 94 matches

Antoniano away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.04 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Coria CF attack 1.07 + Antoniano defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.06

Antoniano attack 1.02 + Coria CF defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 36%?"

Coria CF scores more

34%

level

29%

Antoniano scores more

36%

Antoniano at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Antoniano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Coria CF vs Antoniano — Match Preview

Coria CF face Antoniano on May 16, 2020 in this Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Coria CF host Antoniano at Estadio Guadalquivir.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.

Coria CF vs Antoniano — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Coria CF vs Antoniano — Match Preview