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Antoniano vs Coria CF — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Antoniano
Antoniano
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Coria CF
Coria CF
1/4/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 10Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 19Estadio Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Antoniano50%
×Draw25%
Coria CF25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Antoniano
1.55
Coria CF
1.02

Antoniano creates 52% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 95 away

creates per match

Antoniano
1.43
Coria CF
0.95

allows per match

Antoniano
1.09
Coria CF
1.67

finishing

Antoniano+0.00on par
Coria CF+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Antoniano ↓

Coria CF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Antoniano or draw
75%
Antoniano or Coria CF
75%
Draw or Coria CF
50%

Winning margin

Antoniano wins by 2+
25%
Coria CF wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Antoniano 1+ goals
79%
Antoniano 2+ goals
46%
Antoniano 3+ goals
20%
Coria CF 1+ goals
64%
Coria CF 2+ goals
27%
Coria CF 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Antoniano (draw refunded)
67%
Coria CF (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Antoniano at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.09 · 58 matches

Coria CF away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.67 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Antoniano attack 1.43 + Coria CF defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.55

Coria CF attack 0.95 + Antoniano defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Antoniano scores more
50%
level
25%
Coria CF scores more
25%

Antoniano at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Antoniano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 10: Antoniano 2–3 Coria CF

Coria CF beat Antoniano 3-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on January 4, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal in Lebrija.