Cordoba 1–1 Sporting Gijon: Result & Stats

Cordoba

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Sporting Gijon

Carlos Albarrán 45+2'

Carlos Dotor 85'

3/15/2025

Segunda División · Round 31Estadio Nuevo Arcángel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Cordoba49%

×Draw24%

Sporting Gijon27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CordobaExpected goals in this matchSporting Gijon

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.74

1.22

Cordoba

1.74

Sporting Gijon

1.22

Cordoba creates 43% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 5 away

1.96

creates per match

1.14

1.30

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

Cordoba

1.96

Sporting Gijon

1.14

allows per match

Cordoba

1.30

Sporting Gijon

1.52

-0.63scores less than expected

finishing

-0.14scores less than expected

finishing

Cordoba-0.63scores less

Sporting Gijon-0.14scores less

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cordoba ↓

Sporting Gijon →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Cordoba or draw

73%

Cordoba or Sporting Gijon

76%

Draw or Sporting Gijon

51%

Winning margin

Cordoba wins by 2+

27%

Sporting Gijon wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Cordoba 1+ goals

82%

Cordoba 2+ goals

52%

Cordoba 3+ goals

25%

Sporting Gijon 1+ goals

70%

Sporting Gijon 2+ goals

34%

Sporting Gijon 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Cordoba (draw refunded)

65%

Sporting Gijon (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cordoba at home — creates 1.96, concedes 1.30 · 6 matches

Sporting Gijon away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.52 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cordoba attack 1.96 + Sporting Gijon defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.74

Sporting Gijon attack 1.14 + Cordoba defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Cordoba scores more

49%

level

24%

Sporting Gijon scores more

27%

Cordoba at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Cordoba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6

Álex Sala

Cordoba · M

7.9

Match Events

-5'

Antonio Casas

-5'

Antonio Casas

45+2'

Carlos Albarrán↳ Jacobo González

46'

J. Caicedo← J. Otero

46'

Carlos Dotor← Gaspar Campos

56'

Antonio Casas

68'

N. Obolskiy← Antonio Casas

68'

Ander Yoldi← Jacobo González

69'

Róber Pier

72'

Pablo García← N. Maraš

78'

Jon Magunazelaia← Pedro Ortiz

78'

Kevin Vázquez← Nico Serrano

78'

Víctor Campuzano← Guille Rosas

81'

Jonathan Dubasin

85'

Carlos Dotor↳ Pablo García

89'

Carlos Dotor

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CordobaSporting

Overview

57%Possession43%

18Total Shots6

5Corners1

8Fouls13

Shots

18Total Shots6

4On Target4

8Off Target1

6Blocked1

13Inside Box3

5Outside Box3

Passing

57%Possession43%

469Total Passes364

361Accurate Passes262

77%Pass Accuracy72%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

8Fouls13

2Yellow Cards3

1Red Cards0

0Offsides3

Match Recap: Cordoba vs Sporting Gijon

Cordoba and Sporting Gijon drew 1-1 in Segunda División on March 15, 2025.

Goals: Carlos Albarrán (45+2'), Carlos Dotor (85').

Cordoba controlled possession (57%) and registered 18 shots to 6.

The match was played at Estadio Nuevo Arcángel in Córdoba.

Cordoba vs Sporting Gijon — Segunda División 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Cordoba vs Sporting Gijon