Cordoba 1–2 Sporting Gijon: Result & Stats

Cordoba

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Sporting Gijon

José Carrillo 30'

Carlos Carmona 81'

M. Peybernes 38'

3/17/2019

Segunda División · Round 30Estadio Nuevo Arcángel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Cordoba49%

×Draw24%

Sporting Gijon27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CordobaExpected goals in this matchSporting Gijon

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.74

1.22

Cordoba

1.74

Sporting Gijon

1.22

Cordoba creates 43% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 5 away

1.96

creates per match

1.14

1.30

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

Cordoba

1.96

Sporting Gijon

1.14

allows per match

Cordoba

1.30

Sporting Gijon

1.52

-0.63scores less than expected

finishing

-0.14scores less than expected

finishing

Cordoba-0.63scores less

Sporting Gijon-0.14scores less

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cordoba ↓

Sporting Gijon →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Cordoba or draw

73%

Cordoba or Sporting Gijon

76%

Draw or Sporting Gijon

51%

Winning margin

Cordoba wins by 2+

27%

Sporting Gijon wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Cordoba 1+ goals

82%

Cordoba 2+ goals

52%

Cordoba 3+ goals

25%

Sporting Gijon 1+ goals

70%

Sporting Gijon 2+ goals

34%

Sporting Gijon 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Cordoba (draw refunded)

65%

Sporting Gijon (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cordoba at home — creates 1.96, concedes 1.30 · 6 matches

Sporting Gijon away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.52 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cordoba attack 1.96 + Sporting Gijon defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.74

Sporting Gijon attack 1.14 + Cordoba defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Cordoba scores more

49%

level

24%

Sporting Gijon scores more

27%

Cordoba at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Cordoba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

25

Álex Alegría

Sporting Gijon · F

7.7

Match Events

21'

Luis Muñoz

24'

Alex Perez

30'

José Carrillo↳ Fernández

38'

M. Peybernes↳ U. Đurđević

46'

Álex Quintanilla← Chus Herrero

65'

Ignacio Mendez

68'

Ivi López← Aitor García

68'

Cristian Salvador← Nacho Méndez

69'

Álvaro Aguado← De las Cuevas

76'

F. Piovaccari← I. Touré

80'

Miguel Flaño

80'

Pablo Pérez← U. Đurđević

81'

Carlos Carmona

84'

José Ángel Carrillo

89'

Alex Quintanilla

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CordobaSporting

Overview

58%Possession42%

12Total Shots10

4Corners4

16Fouls24

Shots

12Total Shots10

4On Target4

4Off Target5

4Blocked1

6Inside Box6

6Outside Box4

Passing

58%Possession42%

364Total Passes267

278Accurate Passes171

76%Pass Accuracy64%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

16Fouls24

4Yellow Cards2

3Offsides7

Match Recap: Cordoba vs Sporting Gijon

Sporting Gijon beat Cordoba 2-1 in Segunda División on March 17, 2019.

Goals: José Carrillo (30'), M. Peybernes (38'), Carlos Carmona (81').

Cordoba controlled possession (58%) and registered 12 shots to 10.

The match was played at Estadio Nuevo Arcángel in Cordoba.

Cordoba vs Sporting Gijon — Segunda División 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Cordoba vs Sporting Gijon