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Córdoba II vs Atlético Espeleño — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Córdoba II
Córdoba II
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Atlético Espeleño
Atlético Espeleño
3/22/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 10Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 27Ciudad Deportiva Rafael Gómez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Córdoba II55%
×Draw24%
Atlético Espeleño21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Córdoba II
1.75
Atlético Espeleño
0.99

Córdoba II creates 77% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 49 away

creates per match

Córdoba II
1.60
Atlético Espeleño
0.92

allows per match

Córdoba II
1.05
Atlético Espeleño
1.90

finishing

Córdoba II+0.00on par
Atlético Espeleño+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Córdoba II ↓

Atlético Espeleño →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Córdoba II or draw
79%
Córdoba II or Atlético Espeleño
76%
Draw or Atlético Espeleño
45%

Winning margin

Córdoba II wins by 2+
31%
Atlético Espeleño wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Córdoba II 1+ goals
83%
Córdoba II 2+ goals
52%
Córdoba II 3+ goals
25%
Atlético Espeleño 1+ goals
63%
Atlético Espeleño 2+ goals
26%
Atlético Espeleño 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Córdoba II (draw refunded)
72%
Atlético Espeleño (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Córdoba II at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.05 · 110 matches

Atlético Espeleño away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.90 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Córdoba II attack 1.60 + Atlético Espeleño defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.75

Atlético Espeleño attack 0.92 + Córdoba II defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Córdoba II scores more
55%
level
24%
Atlético Espeleño scores more
21%

Córdoba II at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Córdoba II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Córdoba II vs Atlético Espeleño

Córdoba II beat Atlético Espeleño 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on March 22, 2025.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva Rafael Gómez in Córdoba.