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Atlético Espeleño vs Córdoba II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Atlético Espeleño
Atlético Espeleño
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Córdoba II
Córdoba II
12/23/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 10Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 16Campo de Fútbol Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Atlético Espeleño41%
×Draw27%
Córdoba II32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético Espeleño
1.35
Córdoba II
1.15

Atlético Espeleño creates 17% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 110 away

creates per match

Atlético Espeleño
1.35
Córdoba II
1.13

allows per match

Atlético Espeleño
1.16
Córdoba II
1.34

finishing

Atlético Espeleño+0.00on par
Córdoba II+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Espeleño ↓

Córdoba II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Atlético Espeleño or draw
68%
Atlético Espeleño or Córdoba II
73%
Draw or Córdoba II
59%

Winning margin

Atlético Espeleño wins by 2+
19%
Córdoba II wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Atlético Espeleño 1+ goals
74%
Atlético Espeleño 2+ goals
39%
Atlético Espeleño 3+ goals
15%
Córdoba II 1+ goals
68%
Córdoba II 2+ goals
32%
Córdoba II 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Atlético Espeleño (draw refunded)
56%
Córdoba II (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Espeleño at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.16 · 49 matches

Córdoba II away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.34 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Espeleño attack 1.35 + Córdoba II defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.35

Córdoba II attack 1.13 + Atlético Espeleño defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Atlético Espeleño scores more
41%
level
27%
Córdoba II scores more
32%

Atlético Espeleño at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Atlético Espeleño will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Atlético Espeleño vs Córdoba II

Atlético Espeleño and Córdoba II drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on December 23, 2023.

The match was played at Campo de Fútbol Municipal in Espiel.