Córdoba II 1–0 Atlético Central: Result & Stats

Córdoba II

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Atlético Central

Zaki 13'

10/6/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 5Ciudad Deportiva Rafael Gómez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Córdoba II44%

×Draw29%

Atlético Central27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Córdoba IIExpected goals in this matchAtlético Central

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.26

0.91

Córdoba II

1.26

Atlético Central

0.91

Córdoba II creates 38% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 35 away

1.60

creates per match

0.77

1.05

allows per match

0.91

creates per match

Córdoba II

1.60

Atlético Central

0.77

allows per match

Córdoba II

1.05

Atlético Central

0.91

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Córdoba II+0.00on par

Atlético Central+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Córdoba II ↓

Atlético Central →

0–011%

0–110%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–04%

3–13%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Córdoba II or draw

73%

Córdoba II or Atlético Central

71%

Draw or Atlético Central

56%

Winning margin

Córdoba II wins by 2+

20%

Atlético Central wins by 2+

Team goals

Córdoba II 1+ goals

72%

Córdoba II 2+ goals

36%

Córdoba II 3+ goals

13%

Atlético Central 1+ goals

60%

Atlético Central 2+ goals

23%

Atlético Central 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Córdoba II (draw refunded)

62%

Atlético Central (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Córdoba II at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.05 · 110 matches

Atlético Central away — creates 0.77, concedes 0.91 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Córdoba II attack 1.60 + Atlético Central defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.26

Atlético Central attack 0.77 + Córdoba II defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 44%?"

Córdoba II scores more

44%

level

29%

Atlético Central scores more

27%

Córdoba II at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Córdoba II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'

Zaki

46'

Álex Jiménez← Josema

51'

Álvaro Gómez← Zaki

58'

Pablo Haro← E. Sachetti

58'

Juan Delgado← Choco

69'

Nacho Domínguez← Bugui

88'

Cristian Osca← Mario Peregrina

Córdoba

Atlético

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Zaki

▼

Josema

Manager: Gaspar Gálvez

46'▲Álex Jiménez←▼Josema

51'▲Álvaro Gómez←▼Zaki

69'▲Nacho Domínguez←▼Bugui

88'▲Cristian Osca←▼Mario Peregrina

Córdoba II substitutes

JiménezGómezDomínguezOsca

Manager: José Miguel

58'▲Pablo Haro←▼E. Sachetti

58'▲Juan Delgado←▼Choco

Atlético Central substitutes

HaroDelgado

Match Recap: Córdoba II vs Atlético Central

Córdoba II beat Atlético Central 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on October 6, 2024.

Goals: Zaki (13').

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva Rafael Gómez in Córdoba.

Córdoba II vs Atlético Central — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Córdoba II vs Atlético Central