Atlético Central 0–1 Córdoba II: Result & Stats

Atlético Central

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Córdoba II

Pablo Muñoz 48'

2/16/2025

Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 22Estadio Ciudad de Alcalá

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Atlético Central50%

×Draw26%

Córdoba II24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atlético CentralExpected goals in this matchCórdoba II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

0.94

Atlético Central

1.48

Córdoba II

0.94

Atlético Central creates 57% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 110 away

1.61

creates per match

1.13

0.75

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

Atlético Central

1.61

Córdoba II

1.13

allows per match

Atlético Central

0.75

Córdoba II

1.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atlético Central+0.00on par

Córdoba II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Central ↓

Córdoba II →

0–09%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Atlético Central or draw

76%

Atlético Central or Córdoba II

74%

Draw or Córdoba II

50%

Winning margin

Atlético Central wins by 2+

25%

Córdoba II wins by 2+

Team goals

Atlético Central 1+ goals

77%

Atlético Central 2+ goals

43%

Atlético Central 3+ goals

19%

Córdoba II 1+ goals

61%

Córdoba II 2+ goals

24%

Córdoba II 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Atlético Central (draw refunded)

67%

Córdoba II (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Atlético Central at home — creates 1.61, concedes 0.75 · 36 matches

Córdoba II away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.34 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Central attack 1.61 + Córdoba II defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.48

Córdoba II attack 1.13 + Atlético Central defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 50%?"

Atlético Central scores more

50%

level

26%

Córdoba II scores more

24%

Atlético Central at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Atlético Central will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

38'

Mario Peregrina← Álvaro Gómez

48'

Pablo Muñoz

54'

Joaquín Gómez← Zaki

63'

Luis Madrigal← Juan Gómez

63'

Sergio Ortiz← Pablo Haro

63'

Álex Albajara← Gabi

78'

Juan Soto← Fran Ávila

86'

Bugui← Víctor Blanco

86'

Hashem Khalaifat← Pablo Muñoz

Atlético

Córdoba

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: José Miguel

63'▲Luis Madrigal←▼Juan Gómez

63'▲Sergio Ortiz←▼Pablo Haro

63'▲Álex Albajara←▼Gabi

78'▲Juan Soto←▼Fran Ávila

Atlético Central substitutes

MadrigalOrtizAlbajaraSoto

Manager: Gaspar Gálvez

38'▲Mario Peregrina←▼Álvaro Gómez

54'▲Joaquín Gómez←▼Zaki

86'▲Bugui←▼Víctor Blanco

86'▲Hashem Khalaifat←▼Pablo Muñoz

Córdoba II substitutes

PeregrinaGómezBuguiKhalaifat

Match Recap: Atlético Central vs Córdoba II

Córdoba II beat Atlético Central 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on February 16, 2025.

Goals: Pablo Muñoz (48').

The match was played at Estadio Ciudad de Alcalá in Alcalá de Guadaíra.

Atlético Central vs Córdoba II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Atlético Central vs Córdoba II