Coquimbo Unido vs Universidad de Concepcion

Coquimbo Unido

Preview

19:00

Universidad de Concepcion

7/25/2026

Primera División · Round 16

Big match

49%

Coquimbo Unido

model favours

49%25%26%

Universidad de Concepcion score first in only 33% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1

likely score

52%

under 2.5 goals

51%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Coquimbo Unido49%

×Draw25%

Universidad de Concepcion26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Coquimbo UnidoExpected goals in this matchUniversidad de Concepcion

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.55

1.06

Coquimbo Unido

1.55

Universidad de Concepcion

1.06

Coquimbo Unido creates 46% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 53 away

1.43

creates per match

1.09

1.04

allows per match

1.68

creates per match

Coquimbo Unido

1.43

Universidad de Concepcion

1.09

allows per match

Coquimbo Unido

1.04

Universidad de Concepcion

1.68

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Coquimbo Unido+0.00on par

Universidad de Concepcion+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Coquimbo Unido ↓

Universidad de Concepcion →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Coquimbo Unido or draw

74%

Coquimbo Unido or Universidad de Concepcion

75%

Draw or Universidad de Concepcion

51%

Winning margin

Coquimbo Unido wins by 2+

25%

Universidad de Concepcion wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Coquimbo Unido 1+ goals

79%

Coquimbo Unido 2+ goals

46%

Coquimbo Unido 3+ goals

20%

Universidad de Concepcion 1+ goals

65%

Universidad de Concepcion 2+ goals

29%

Universidad de Concepcion 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Coquimbo Unido (draw refunded)

65%

Universidad de Concepcion (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Coquimbo Unido at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.04 · 96 matches

Universidad de Concepcion away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.68 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Coquimbo Unido attack 1.43 + Universidad de Concepcion defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.55

Universidad de Concepcion attack 1.09 + Coquimbo Unido defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Coquimbo Unido scores more

49%

level

25%

Universidad de Concepcion scores more

26%

Coquimbo Unido at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Coquimbo Unido will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

Coquimbo Unido score first in only 35% of matches
50% of Coquimbo Unido’s goals come after the 75th minute
Universidad de Concepcion raise their game against the top half — 34% wins vs the upper half, only 28% vs the lower
65% of Coquimbo Unido’s matches stay under 2.5 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form

Unido

LWDDW

Concepcion

WLDLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff