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Coquimbo Unido vs Everton de Vina — Primera División 2018

Coquimbo Unido
Coquimbo Unido
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Everton de Vina
Everton de Vina
9/24/2024Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Round 25Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Coquimbo Unido58%
×Draw24%
Everton de Vina18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Coquimbo Unido
1.70
Everton de Vina
0.82

Coquimbo Unido creates 107% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 11 away

creates per match

Coquimbo Unido
1.79
Everton de Vina
0.97

allows per match

Coquimbo Unido
0.68
Everton de Vina
1.61

finishing

Coquimbo Unido+0.10scores more
Everton de Vina-0.06on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Coquimbo Unido ↓

Everton de Vina →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Coquimbo Unido or draw
82%
Coquimbo Unido or Everton de Vina
76%
Draw or Everton de Vina
42%

Winning margin

Coquimbo Unido wins by 2+
32%
Everton de Vina wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Coquimbo Unido 1+ goals
82%
Coquimbo Unido 2+ goals
51%
Coquimbo Unido 3+ goals
24%
Everton de Vina 1+ goals
56%
Everton de Vina 2+ goals
20%
Everton de Vina 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Coquimbo Unido (draw refunded)
76%
Everton de Vina (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Coquimbo Unido at home — creates 1.79, concedes 0.68 · 9 matches

Everton de Vina away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.61 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Coquimbo Unido attack 1.79 + Everton de Vina defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.70

Everton de Vina attack 0.97 + Coquimbo Unido defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Coquimbo Unido scores more
58%
level
24%
Everton de Vina scores more
18%

Coquimbo Unido at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Coquimbo Unido will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Coquimbo Unido vs Everton de Vina

Coquimbo Unido and Everton de Vina drew 2-2 in Primera División on September 24, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso in Coquimbo.