Coquimbo Unido 1–1 Cobresal: Result & Stats

Coquimbo Unido

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Cobresal

F. Salinas 60'

C. Barrera 76'

3/9/2025

Primera División · Round 4Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Coquimbo Unido59%

×Draw21%

Cobresal20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Coquimbo UnidoExpected goals in this matchCobresal

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.14

1.17

Coquimbo Unido

2.14

Cobresal

1.17

Coquimbo Unido creates 83% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 9 away

1.79

creates per match

1.66

0.68

allows per match

2.49

creates per match

Coquimbo Unido

1.79

Cobresal

1.66

allows per match

Coquimbo Unido

0.68

Cobresal

2.49

+0.10scores more than expected

finishing

-0.66scores less than expected

finishing

Coquimbo Unido+0.10scores more

Cobresal-0.66scores less

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Coquimbo Unido ↓

Cobresal →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Coquimbo Unido or draw

80%

Coquimbo Unido or Cobresal

79%

Draw or Cobresal

41%

Winning margin

Coquimbo Unido wins by 2+

36%

Cobresal wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Coquimbo Unido 1+ goals

88%

Coquimbo Unido 2+ goals

63%

Coquimbo Unido 3+ goals

36%

Cobresal 1+ goals

69%

Cobresal 2+ goals

33%

Cobresal 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Coquimbo Unido (draw refunded)

75%

Cobresal (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Coquimbo Unido at home — creates 1.79, concedes 0.68 · 9 matches

Cobresal away — creates 1.66, concedes 2.49 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Coquimbo Unido attack 1.79 + Cobresal defence 2.49 → ÷2 → 2.14

Cobresal attack 1.66 + Coquimbo Unido defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Coquimbo Unido scores more

59%

level

21%

Cobresal scores more

20%

Coquimbo Unido at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Coquimbo Unido will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17

F. Salinas

Coquimbo Unido · D

7.9

Match Events

1'

22'

34'

46'

46'

V. Fernandez← A. Gajardo

46'

C. Yanis← C. Mesias

51'

Jorge Henríquez

55'

J. Cornejo← B. Chandia

55'

C. Waterman← N. Donadell

60'

F. Salinas

67'

F. Trinanes← F. Bechtholdt

70'

Vicente Fernández

70'

S. Cordero← M. Zepeda

76'

C. Barrera

80'

C. Toro← C. Moreno

81'

J. Flores← S. Cabrera

81'

F. Reynero← A. Camargo

84'

Juan Cornejo

85'

A. Astudillo← J. A. Henriquez Neira

87'

César Munder

89'

Félix Triñanes

90+6'

Salvador Cordero

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CoquimboCobresal

Overview

49%Possession51%

24Total Shots14

6Corners4

8Fouls10

Shots

24Total Shots14

8On Target3

13Off Target5

3Blocked6

14Inside Box5

10Outside Box9

Passing

49%Possession51%

370Total Passes399

302Accurate Passes321

82%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

2Saves7

Discipline

8Fouls10

4Yellow Cards6

0Offsides1