Cobresal 1–2 Coquimbo Unido: Result & Stats

Cobresal

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Coquimbo Unido

D. Coelho 44' (pen)

S. Galani 58'

C. Waterman 25'

8/10/2025

Primera División · Round 19Estadio El Cobre de El Salvador

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Cobresal43%

×Draw26%

Coquimbo Unido32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CobresalExpected goals in this matchCoquimbo Unido

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.23

Cobresal

1.48

Coquimbo Unido

1.23

Cobresal creates 20% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 13 away

1.86

creates per match

1.33

1.12

allows per match

1.10

creates per match

Cobresal

1.86

Coquimbo Unido

1.33

allows per match

Cobresal

1.12

Coquimbo Unido

1.10

-0.19scores less than expected

finishing

-0.33scores less than expected

finishing

Cobresal-0.19scores less

Coquimbo Unido-0.33scores less

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cobresal ↓

Coquimbo Unido →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Cobresal or draw

68%

Cobresal or Coquimbo Unido

74%

Draw or Coquimbo Unido

57%

Winning margin

Cobresal wins by 2+

21%

Coquimbo Unido wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Cobresal 1+ goals

77%

Cobresal 2+ goals

43%

Cobresal 3+ goals

19%

Coquimbo Unido 1+ goals

71%

Coquimbo Unido 2+ goals

35%

Coquimbo Unido 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Cobresal (draw refunded)

58%

Coquimbo Unido (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cobresal at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.12 · 6 matches

Coquimbo Unido away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.10 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cobresal attack 1.86 + Coquimbo Unido defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.48

Coquimbo Unido attack 1.33 + Cobresal defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Cobresal scores more

43%

level

26%

Coquimbo Unido scores more

32%

Cobresal at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Cobresal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

D. Coelho

Cobresal · F

7.7

Match Events

17'

Franco Bechtholdt

24'

Cristhofer Mesías

25'

C. Waterman

27'

V. Fernandez← J. Tiznado

29'

Vicente Fernández

40'

César MunderPenalty confirmed

41'

Bruno Cabrera

44'

D. CoelhoPenalty

55'

Salvador Cordero

58'

S. Galani↳ B. Chandia

63'

F. Trinanes← J. A. Henriquez Neira

64'

A. Astudillo← C. Barrera

65'

Alejandro Camargo

68'

Cristián Zavala

68'

M. Zepeda← S. Cabrera

74'

A. E. Azocar Machuca← B. Chandia

74'

L. Soza← C. Zavala

79'

A. Vilches Araneda← C. Mesias

80'

Cecilio Waterman

84'

N. Johansen← C. Waterman

89'

Diego CoelhoGoal cancelled

89'

Francisco Salinas

90'

Diego Coelho

90+10'

César Munder

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CobresalCoquimbo

Overview

69%Possession31%

16Total Shots12

1.85Expected Goals (xG)2.36

5Corners5

10Fouls12

Shots

16Total Shots12

6On Target7

8Off Target5

2Blocked0

8Inside Box7

8Outside Box5

Passing

69%Possession31%

419Total Passes180

359Accurate Passes120

86%Pass Accuracy67%

Goalkeeping

5Saves5

Discipline

10Fouls12

4Yellow Cards5

1Red Cards1

3Offsides2