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Cooks Hill United vs Broadmeadow Magic — Northern NSW NPL 2026

Cooks Hill United
Cooks Hill United
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Broadmeadow Magic
Broadmeadow Magic
7/16/2025Northern NSW NPLNorthern NSW NPL · Round 11Fearnley Dawes Athletic Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Cooks Hill United30%
×Draw22%
Broadmeadow Magic48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cooks Hill United
1.54
Broadmeadow Magic
2.00

Broadmeadow Magic creates 30% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 81 away

creates per match

Cooks Hill United
1.83
Broadmeadow Magic
2.32

allows per match

Cooks Hill United
1.69
Broadmeadow Magic
1.25

finishing

Cooks Hill United+0.00on par
Broadmeadow Magic+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cooks Hill United ↓

Broadmeadow Magic →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Cooks Hill United or draw
52%
Cooks Hill United or Broadmeadow Magic
78%
Draw or Broadmeadow Magic
70%

Winning margin

Cooks Hill United wins by 2+
14%
Broadmeadow Magic wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Cooks Hill United 1+ goals
79%
Cooks Hill United 2+ goals
45%
Cooks Hill United 3+ goals
20%
Broadmeadow Magic 1+ goals
86%
Broadmeadow Magic 2+ goals
59%
Broadmeadow Magic 3+ goals
32%

Draw no bet

Cooks Hill United (draw refunded)
38%
Broadmeadow Magic (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cooks Hill United at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.69 · 52 matches

Broadmeadow Magic away — creates 2.32, concedes 1.25 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cooks Hill United attack 1.83 + Broadmeadow Magic defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.54

Broadmeadow Magic attack 2.32 + Cooks Hill United defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Cooks Hill United scores more
30%
level
22%
Broadmeadow Magic scores more
48%

Broadmeadow Magic at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Broadmeadow Magic will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Northern NSW NPL: Cooks Hill United 0–2 Broadmeadow Magic

Broadmeadow Magic beat Cooks Hill United 2-0 in Northern NSW NPL on July 16, 2025.

The match was played at Fearnley Dawes Athletic Centre in Newcastle.