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Constància vs CE Sant Jordi — Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 2019

Constància
Constància
FT
5 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
CE Sant Jordi
CE Sant Jordi
10/29/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 11Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 8Camp del Sallista

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Constància78%
×Draw14%
CE Sant Jordi8%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Constància
2.63
CE Sant Jordi
0.69

Constància creates 281% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 15 away

creates per match

Constància
1.66
CE Sant Jordi
0.60

allows per match

Constància
0.78
CE Sant Jordi
3.60

finishing

Constància+0.00on par
CE Sant Jordi+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Constància ↓

CE Sant Jordi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–17%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–15%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Constància or draw
92%
Constància or CE Sant Jordi
86%
Draw or CE Sant Jordi
22%

Winning margin

Constància wins by 2+
57%
CE Sant Jordi wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Constància 1+ goals
93%
Constància 2+ goals
73%
Constància 3+ goals
48%
CE Sant Jordi 1+ goals
50%
CE Sant Jordi 2+ goals
15%
CE Sant Jordi 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Constància (draw refunded)
91%
CE Sant Jordi (draw refunded)
9%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Constància at home — creates 1.66, concedes 0.78 · 112 matches

CE Sant Jordi away — creates 0.60, concedes 3.60 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Constància attack 1.66 + CE Sant Jordi defence 3.60 → ÷2 → 2.63

CE Sant Jordi attack 0.60 + Constància defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 78%?"

Constància scores more
78%
level
14%
CE Sant Jordi scores more
8%

Constància at 78% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 78% does not mean "Constància will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11: Constància 5–0 CE Sant Jordi

Constància beat CE Sant Jordi 5-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 on October 29, 2022.

The match was played at Camp del Sallista in Inca.