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CE Sant Jordi vs Constància — Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 2019

CE Sant Jordi
CE Sant Jordi
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Constància
Constància
3/5/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 11Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 23Camp de Futbol Sant Jordi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

CE Sant Jordi22%
×Draw22%
Constància56%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CE Sant Jordi
1.12
Constància
1.91

Constància creates 71% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 115 away

creates per match

CE Sant Jordi
1.20
Constància
1.15

allows per match

CE Sant Jordi
2.67
Constància
1.04

finishing

CE Sant Jordi+0.00on par
Constància+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CE Sant Jordi ↓

Constància →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–29%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

CE Sant Jordi or draw
44%
CE Sant Jordi or Constància
78%
Draw or Constància
78%

Winning margin

CE Sant Jordi wins by 2+
8%
Constància wins by 2+
32%

Team goals

CE Sant Jordi 1+ goals
67%
CE Sant Jordi 2+ goals
31%
CE Sant Jordi 3+ goals
10%
Constància 1+ goals
85%
Constància 2+ goals
57%
Constància 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

CE Sant Jordi (draw refunded)
28%
Constància (draw refunded)
72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CE Sant Jordi at home — creates 1.20, concedes 2.67 · 15 matches

Constància away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.04 · 115 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CE Sant Jordi attack 1.20 + Constància defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.12

Constància attack 1.15 + CE Sant Jordi defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 1.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

CE Sant Jordi scores more
22%
level
22%
Constància scores more
56%

Constància at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Constància will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: CE Sant Jordi vs Constància

CE Sant Jordi and Constància drew 2-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 on March 5, 2023.

The match was played at Camp de Futbol Sant Jordi in Sant Jordi.