Constància 1–0 Arenal: Result & Stats

Constància

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Arenal

10/28/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 8Nou Camp de Inca

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Constància64%

×Draw22%

Arenal14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ConstànciaExpected goals in this matchArenal

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.80

0.69

Constància

1.80

Arenal

0.69

Constància creates 161% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 17 away

1.66

creates per match

0.59

0.78

allows per match

1.94

creates per match

Constància

1.66

Arenal

0.59

allows per match

Constància

0.78

Arenal

1.94

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Constància+0.00on par

Arenal+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Constància ↓

Arenal →

0–08%

0–16%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1–015%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3–08%

3–16%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Constància or draw

86%

Constància or Arenal

78%

Draw or Arenal

36%

Winning margin

Constància wins by 2+

38%

Arenal wins by 2+

Team goals

Constància 1+ goals

83%

Constància 2+ goals

54%

Constància 3+ goals

27%

Arenal 1+ goals

50%

Arenal 2+ goals

15%

Arenal 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Constància (draw refunded)

82%

Arenal (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Constància at home — creates 1.66, concedes 0.78 · 112 matches

Arenal away — creates 0.59, concedes 1.94 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Constància attack 1.66 + Arenal defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.80

Arenal attack 0.59 + Constància defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 64%?"

Constància scores more

64%

level

22%

Arenal scores more

14%

Constància at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Constància will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff