Arenal 1–1 Constància: Result & Stats

Arenal

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Constància

3/16/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 25Estadio Son Verí

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Arenal29%

×Draw27%

Constància43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ArenalExpected goals in this matchConstància

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.05

1.34

Arenal

1.05

Constància

1.34

Constància creates 28% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 115 away

1.06

creates per match

1.15

1.53

allows per match

1.04

creates per match

Arenal

1.06

Constància

1.15

allows per match

Arenal

1.53

Constància

1.04

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Arenal+0.00on par

Constància+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arenal ↓

Constància →

0–09%

0–112%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1–010%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–02%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Arenal or draw

57%

Arenal or Constància

73%

Draw or Constància

71%

Winning margin

Arenal wins by 2+

11%

Constància wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Arenal 1+ goals

65%

Arenal 2+ goals

28%

Arenal 3+ goals

Constància 1+ goals

74%

Constància 2+ goals

39%

Constància 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Arenal (draw refunded)

40%

Constància (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Arenal at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.53 · 17 matches

Constància away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.04 · 115 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Arenal attack 1.06 + Constància defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.05

Constància attack 1.15 + Arenal defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 43%?"

Arenal scores more

29%

level

27%

Constància scores more

43%

Constància at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Constància will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff