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Consadole Sapporo vs Avispa Fukuoka — J1 League 2018

Consadole Sapporo
Consadole Sapporo
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Avispa Fukuoka
Avispa Fukuoka
8/10/2024J1 LeagueJ1 League · Round 26Daiwa House Premist Dome

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 98+ matches

Consadole Sapporo40%
×Draw27%
Avispa Fukuoka33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Consadole Sapporo
1.29
Avispa Fukuoka
1.15

Consadole Sapporo creates 12% more chances

Season form · 123 home / 98 away

creates per match

Consadole Sapporo
1.49
Avispa Fukuoka
0.88

allows per match

Consadole Sapporo
1.41
Avispa Fukuoka
1.10

finishing

Consadole Sapporo+0.00on par
Avispa Fukuoka+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Consadole Sapporo ↓

Avispa Fukuoka →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Consadole Sapporo or draw
67%
Consadole Sapporo or Avispa Fukuoka
73%
Draw or Avispa Fukuoka
60%

Winning margin

Consadole Sapporo wins by 2+
18%
Avispa Fukuoka wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Consadole Sapporo 1+ goals
72%
Consadole Sapporo 2+ goals
37%
Consadole Sapporo 3+ goals
14%
Avispa Fukuoka 1+ goals
68%
Avispa Fukuoka 2+ goals
32%
Avispa Fukuoka 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Consadole Sapporo (draw refunded)
55%
Avispa Fukuoka (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Consadole Sapporo at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.41 · 123 matches

Avispa Fukuoka away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.10 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Consadole Sapporo attack 1.49 + Avispa Fukuoka defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.29

Avispa Fukuoka attack 0.88 + Consadole Sapporo defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Consadole Sapporo scores more
40%
level
27%
Avispa Fukuoka scores more
33%

Consadole Sapporo at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Consadole Sapporo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Consadole Sapporo vs Avispa Fukuoka

Consadole Sapporo and Avispa Fukuoka drew 2-2 in J1 League on August 10, 2024.

The match was played at Daiwa House Premist Dome in Sapporo.