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Avispa Fukuoka vs Consadole Sapporo — J1 League 2018

Avispa Fukuoka
Avispa Fukuoka
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Consadole Sapporo
Consadole Sapporo
7/8/2023J1 LeagueJ1 League · Round 20Best Denki Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 96+ matches

Avispa Fukuoka41%
×Draw26%
Consadole Sapporo32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Avispa Fukuoka
1.39
Consadole Sapporo
1.19

Avispa Fukuoka creates 17% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 123 away

creates per match

Avispa Fukuoka
1.03
Consadole Sapporo
1.28

allows per match

Avispa Fukuoka
1.09
Consadole Sapporo
1.74

finishing

Avispa Fukuoka+0.00on par
Consadole Sapporo+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Avispa Fukuoka ↓

Consadole Sapporo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Avispa Fukuoka or draw
68%
Avispa Fukuoka or Consadole Sapporo
74%
Draw or Consadole Sapporo
59%

Winning margin

Avispa Fukuoka wins by 2+
19%
Consadole Sapporo wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Avispa Fukuoka 1+ goals
75%
Avispa Fukuoka 2+ goals
40%
Avispa Fukuoka 3+ goals
16%
Consadole Sapporo 1+ goals
70%
Consadole Sapporo 2+ goals
33%
Consadole Sapporo 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Avispa Fukuoka (draw refunded)
56%
Consadole Sapporo (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Avispa Fukuoka at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.09 · 96 matches

Consadole Sapporo away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.74 · 123 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Avispa Fukuoka attack 1.03 + Consadole Sapporo defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.39

Consadole Sapporo attack 1.28 + Avispa Fukuoka defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Avispa Fukuoka scores more
41%
level
26%
Consadole Sapporo scores more
32%

Avispa Fukuoka at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Avispa Fukuoka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Avispa Fukuoka vs Consadole Sapporo

Avispa Fukuoka beat Consadole Sapporo 2-1 in J1 League on July 8, 2023.

The match was played at Best Denki Stadium in Fukuoka.