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Congo DR vs Burkina Faso — Friendlies 2026

Congo DR
Congo DR
CANC
14:00
Burkina Faso
Burkina Faso
1/3/2022FriendliesFriendlies · Friendlies 3TBC

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Congo DR45%
×Draw30%
Burkina Faso25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Congo DR
1.21
Burkina Faso
0.82

Congo DR creates 48% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 20 away

creates per match

Congo DR
1.06
Burkina Faso
0.90

allows per match

Congo DR
0.75
Burkina Faso
1.35

finishing

Congo DR+0.00on par
Burkina Faso+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Congo DR ↓

Burkina Faso →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Congo DR or draw
75%
Congo DR or Burkina Faso
70%
Draw or Burkina Faso
55%

Winning margin

Congo DR wins by 2+
20%
Burkina Faso wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Congo DR 1+ goals
70%
Congo DR 2+ goals
34%
Congo DR 3+ goals
12%
Burkina Faso 1+ goals
56%
Burkina Faso 2+ goals
20%
Burkina Faso 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Congo DR (draw refunded)
64%
Burkina Faso (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Congo DR at home — creates 1.06, concedes 0.75 · 16 matches

Burkina Faso away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.35 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Congo DR attack 1.06 + Burkina Faso defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.21

Burkina Faso attack 0.90 + Congo DR defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Congo DR scores more
45%
level
30%
Burkina Faso scores more
25%

Congo DR at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Congo DR will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Congo DR face Burkina Faso (Friendlies)

Friendlies returns with Congo DR hosting Burkina Faso. Match starts January 3, 2022. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Congo DR host Burkina Faso at TBC.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.