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Burkina Faso vs Congo DR — Friendlies 2026

Burkina Faso
Burkina Faso
FT
3 – 0
Congo DR
Congo DR
10/9/2020FriendliesFriendlies · Friendlies 3Stade Ben Ahmed El Abdi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Burkina Faso62%
×Draw23%
Congo DR15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Burkina Faso
1.77
Congo DR
0.74

Burkina Faso creates 139% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 8 away

creates per match

Burkina Faso
1.92
Congo DR
0.63

allows per match

Burkina Faso
0.85
Congo DR
1.63

finishing

Burkina Faso+0.00on par
Congo DR+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Burkina Faso ↓

Congo DR →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Burkina Faso or draw
85%
Burkina Faso or Congo DR
77%
Draw or Congo DR
38%

Winning margin

Burkina Faso wins by 2+
36%
Congo DR wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Burkina Faso 1+ goals
83%
Burkina Faso 2+ goals
53%
Burkina Faso 3+ goals
26%
Congo DR 1+ goals
52%
Congo DR 2+ goals
17%
Congo DR 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Burkina Faso (draw refunded)
80%
Congo DR (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Burkina Faso at home — creates 1.92, concedes 0.85 · 13 matches

Congo DR away — creates 0.63, concedes 1.63 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Burkina Faso attack 1.92 + Congo DR defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.77

Congo DR attack 0.63 + Burkina Faso defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Burkina Faso scores more
62%
level
23%
Congo DR scores more
15%

Burkina Faso at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Burkina Faso will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies: Burkina Faso 3–0 Congo DR

Burkina Faso beat Congo DR 3-0 in Friendlies on October 9, 2020.

The match was played at Stade Ben Ahmed El Abdi in Mazghan.