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Concordia Wiemelhausen vs Bochum II — Oberliga - Westfalen 2020

Concordia Wiemelhausen
Concordia Wiemelhausen
FT
1 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
Bochum II
Bochum II
T. Wasserloos 61'
B. Dreca 90'
B. Heuser 52'
S. Kojic 45', 32'
8/25/2024Oberliga - WestfalenOberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - 3Sportpark Concordia Wiemelhausen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Concordia Wiemelhausen27%
×Draw21%
Bochum II52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Concordia Wiemelhausen
1.52
Bochum II
2.17

Bochum II creates 43% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 17 away

creates per match

Concordia Wiemelhausen
2.05
Bochum II
1.88

allows per match

Concordia Wiemelhausen
2.47
Bochum II
1.00

finishing

Concordia Wiemelhausen+0.00on par
Bochum II+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Concordia Wiemelhausen ↓

Bochum II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Concordia Wiemelhausen or draw
48%
Concordia Wiemelhausen or Bochum II
79%
Draw or Bochum II
73%

Winning margin

Concordia Wiemelhausen wins by 2+
12%
Bochum II wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

Concordia Wiemelhausen 1+ goals
78%
Concordia Wiemelhausen 2+ goals
45%
Concordia Wiemelhausen 3+ goals
20%
Bochum II 1+ goals
89%
Bochum II 2+ goals
64%
Bochum II 3+ goals
36%

Draw no bet

Concordia Wiemelhausen (draw refunded)
34%
Bochum II (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Concordia Wiemelhausen at home — creates 2.05, concedes 2.47 · 19 matches

Bochum II away — creates 1.88, concedes 1.00 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Concordia Wiemelhausen attack 2.05 + Bochum II defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.52

Bochum II attack 1.88 + Concordia Wiemelhausen defence 2.47 → ÷2 → 2.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Concordia Wiemelhausen scores more
27%
level
21%
Bochum II scores more
52%

Bochum II at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Bochum II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

32'
S. Kojic
45'
S. Kojic
52'
B. Heuser
61'
T. Wasserloos
90'
B. Dreca

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Westfalen: Concordia Wiemelhausen 1–4 Bochum II

Bochum II beat Concordia Wiemelhausen 4-1 in Oberliga - Westfalen on August 25, 2024.

Goals: S. Kojic (32', 45'), B. Heuser (52'), T. Wasserloos (61'), B. Dreca (90').

The match was played at Sportpark Concordia Wiemelhausen in Bochum.