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Bochum II vs Concordia Wiemelhausen — Oberliga - Westfalen 2020

Bochum II
Bochum II
FT
5 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Concordia Wiemelhausen
Concordia Wiemelhausen
J. Njike Nana 80'
L. Bernsdorf 64'
B. Dreca 58'
L. Koerdt 27'
M. Tolba 22'
2/9/2025Oberliga - WestfalenOberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - 22Nebenplatz Ruhrstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Bochum II77%
×Draw13%
Concordia Wiemelhausen9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bochum II
3.11
Concordia Wiemelhausen
1.03

Bochum II creates 202% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 18 away

creates per match

Bochum II
2.78
Concordia Wiemelhausen
1.28

allows per match

Bochum II
0.78
Concordia Wiemelhausen
3.44

finishing

Bochum II+0.00on par
Concordia Wiemelhausen+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bochum II ↓

Concordia Wiemelhausen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–15%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–19%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–17%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 3–1 (9%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
58%42%4.5
37%63%

Double chance

Bochum II or draw
91%
Bochum II or Concordia Wiemelhausen
87%
Draw or Concordia Wiemelhausen
23%

Winning margin

Bochum II wins by 2+
58%
Concordia Wiemelhausen wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Bochum II 1+ goals
95%
Bochum II 2+ goals
81%
Bochum II 3+ goals
58%
Concordia Wiemelhausen 1+ goals
64%
Concordia Wiemelhausen 2+ goals
28%
Concordia Wiemelhausen 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Bochum II (draw refunded)
89%
Concordia Wiemelhausen (draw refunded)
11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bochum II at home — creates 2.78, concedes 0.78 · 18 matches

Concordia Wiemelhausen away — creates 1.28, concedes 3.44 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bochum II attack 2.78 + Concordia Wiemelhausen defence 3.44 → ÷2 → 3.11

Concordia Wiemelhausen attack 1.28 + Bochum II defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 77%?"

Bochum II scores more
77%
level
13%
Concordia Wiemelhausen scores more
9%

Bochum II at 77% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 77% does not mean "Bochum II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

22'
M. Tolba
27'
L. Koerdt
58'
B. Dreca
64'
L. Bernsdorf
80'
J. Njike Nana

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Westfalen: Bochum II 5–0 Concordia Wiemelhausen

Bochum II beat Concordia Wiemelhausen 5-0 in Oberliga - Westfalen on February 9, 2025.

Goals: M. Tolba (22'), L. Koerdt (27'), B. Dreca (58'), L. Bernsdorf (64'), J. Njike Nana (80').

The match was played at Nebenplatz Ruhrstadion in Bochum.