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Concordia Wiemelhausen vs ASC Dortmund — Oberliga - Westfalen 2020

Concordia Wiemelhausen
Concordia Wiemelhausen
FT
2 – 7
HT: 0 – 5
ASC Dortmund
ASC Dortmund
F. Ozturk 82'
A. Uzunbas 79'
M. Munzel 73'
L. Warschewski 50'
M. Podehl 38', 31', 5'
F. Rausch 35'
J. Santo 4'
4/6/2025Oberliga - WestfalenOberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - 29Sportpark Concordia Wiemelhausen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Concordia Wiemelhausen32%
×Draw21%
ASC Dortmund47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Concordia Wiemelhausen
1.81
ASC Dortmund
2.21

ASC Dortmund creates 22% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 89 away

creates per match

Concordia Wiemelhausen
2.05
ASC Dortmund
1.96

allows per match

Concordia Wiemelhausen
2.47
ASC Dortmund
1.57

finishing

Concordia Wiemelhausen+0.00on par
ASC Dortmund+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Concordia Wiemelhausen ↓

ASC Dortmund →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–28%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
57%43%4.5
37%63%

Double chance

Concordia Wiemelhausen or draw
53%
Concordia Wiemelhausen or ASC Dortmund
79%
Draw or ASC Dortmund
68%

Winning margin

Concordia Wiemelhausen wins by 2+
16%
ASC Dortmund wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Concordia Wiemelhausen 1+ goals
84%
Concordia Wiemelhausen 2+ goals
54%
Concordia Wiemelhausen 3+ goals
27%
ASC Dortmund 1+ goals
89%
ASC Dortmund 2+ goals
65%
ASC Dortmund 3+ goals
38%

Draw no bet

Concordia Wiemelhausen (draw refunded)
41%
ASC Dortmund (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Concordia Wiemelhausen at home — creates 2.05, concedes 2.47 · 19 matches

ASC Dortmund away — creates 1.96, concedes 1.57 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Concordia Wiemelhausen attack 2.05 + ASC Dortmund defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.81

ASC Dortmund attack 1.96 + Concordia Wiemelhausen defence 2.47 → ÷2 → 2.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Concordia Wiemelhausen scores more
32%
level
21%
ASC Dortmund scores more
47%

ASC Dortmund at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "ASC Dortmund will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'
J. Santo
5'
M. Podehl
31'
M. Podehl
35'
F. Rausch
38'
M. Podehl
50'
L. Warschewski
73'
M. Munzel
79'
A. Uzunbas
82'
F. Ozturk

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Concordia Wiemelhausen vs ASC Dortmund

ASC Dortmund beat Concordia Wiemelhausen 7-2 in Oberliga - Westfalen on April 6, 2025.

Goals: J. Santo (4'), M. Podehl (5', 31', 38'), F. Rausch (35'), L. Warschewski (50'), M. Munzel (73'), A. Uzunbas (79'), F. Ozturk (82').

The match was played at Sportpark Concordia Wiemelhausen in Bochum.