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ASC Dortmund vs Concordia Wiemelhausen — Oberliga - Westfalen 2020

ASC Dortmund
ASC Dortmund
FT
4 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Concordia Wiemelhausen
Concordia Wiemelhausen
M. Podehl 60', 27', 12'
F. Rausch 4' (pen)
10/13/2024Oberliga - WestfalenOberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - 10Waldstadion Aplerbeck

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

ASC Dortmund67%
×Draw17%
Concordia Wiemelhausen16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ASC Dortmund
2.80
Concordia Wiemelhausen
1.33

ASC Dortmund creates 111% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 18 away

creates per match

ASC Dortmund
2.17
Concordia Wiemelhausen
1.28

allows per match

ASC Dortmund
1.38
Concordia Wiemelhausen
3.44

finishing

ASC Dortmund+0.00on par
Concordia Wiemelhausen+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ASC Dortmund ↓

Concordia Wiemelhausen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–16%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–16%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
77%23%3.5
58%42%4.5
38%62%

Double chance

ASC Dortmund or draw
84%
ASC Dortmund or Concordia Wiemelhausen
83%
Draw or Concordia Wiemelhausen
33%

Winning margin

ASC Dortmund wins by 2+
47%
Concordia Wiemelhausen wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

ASC Dortmund 1+ goals
94%
ASC Dortmund 2+ goals
76%
ASC Dortmund 3+ goals
52%
Concordia Wiemelhausen 1+ goals
74%
Concordia Wiemelhausen 2+ goals
38%
Concordia Wiemelhausen 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

ASC Dortmund (draw refunded)
81%
Concordia Wiemelhausen (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ASC Dortmund at home — creates 2.17, concedes 1.38 · 89 matches

Concordia Wiemelhausen away — creates 1.28, concedes 3.44 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ASC Dortmund attack 2.17 + Concordia Wiemelhausen defence 3.44 → ÷2 → 2.80

Concordia Wiemelhausen attack 1.28 + ASC Dortmund defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

ASC Dortmund scores more
67%
level
17%
Concordia Wiemelhausen scores more
16%

ASC Dortmund at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "ASC Dortmund will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'
F. RauschPenalty
12'
M. Podehl
27'
M. Podehl
60'
M. Podehl

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: ASC Dortmund vs Concordia Wiemelhausen

ASC Dortmund beat Concordia Wiemelhausen 4-0 in Oberliga - Westfalen on October 13, 2024.

Goals: F. Rausch (4' pen), M. Podehl (12', 27', 60').

The match was played at Waldstadion Aplerbeck in Dortmund.