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Concórdia vs Caxias — Serie D 2018

Concórdia
Concórdia
FT
4 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Caxias
Caxias
7/16/2023Serie DSerie D · 1st Phase - 13Estádio Domingos Machado de Lima

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Concórdia49%
×Draw28%
Caxias23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Concórdia
1.32
Caxias
0.81

Concórdia creates 63% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 50 away

creates per match

Concórdia
1.50
Caxias
0.92

allows per match

Concórdia
0.71
Caxias
1.14

finishing

Concórdia+0.00on par
Caxias+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Concórdia ↓

Caxias →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Concórdia or draw
77%
Concórdia or Caxias
72%
Draw or Caxias
51%

Winning margin

Concórdia wins by 2+
23%
Caxias wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Concórdia 1+ goals
73%
Concórdia 2+ goals
38%
Concórdia 3+ goals
15%
Caxias 1+ goals
56%
Caxias 2+ goals
19%
Caxias 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Concórdia (draw refunded)
68%
Caxias (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Concórdia at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.71 · 14 matches

Caxias away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.14 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Concórdia attack 1.50 + Caxias defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.32

Caxias attack 0.92 + Concórdia defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Concórdia scores more
49%
level
28%
Caxias scores more
23%

Concórdia at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Concórdia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Concórdia vs Caxias

Concórdia beat Caxias 4-0 in Serie D on July 16, 2023.

The match was played at Estádio Domingos Machado de Lima in Concórdia, Santa Catarina.