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Caxias vs Concórdia — Serie D 2018

Caxias
Caxias
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Concórdia
Concórdia
5/14/2023Serie DSerie D · 1st Phase - 2Estádio Francisco Stédile

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Caxias55%
×Draw29%
Concórdia16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Caxias
1.29
Concórdia
0.56

Caxias creates 130% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 14 away

creates per match

Caxias
1.52
Concórdia
0.50

allows per match

Caxias
0.62
Concórdia
1.07

finishing

Caxias+0.00on par
Concórdia+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Under
  • Under72
  • Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

69%No
  • No69
  • Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Caxias ↓

Concórdia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–19%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–020%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
28%72%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Caxias or draw
84%
Caxias or Concórdia
71%
Draw or Concórdia
45%

Winning margin

Caxias wins by 2+
26%
Concórdia wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Caxias 1+ goals
72%
Caxias 2+ goals
37%
Caxias 3+ goals
14%
Concórdia 1+ goals
43%
Concórdia 2+ goals
11%
Concórdia 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Caxias (draw refunded)
77%
Concórdia (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Caxias at home — creates 1.52, concedes 0.62 · 52 matches

Concórdia away — creates 0.50, concedes 1.07 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Caxias attack 1.52 + Concórdia defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.29

Concórdia attack 0.50 + Caxias defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Caxias scores more
55%
level
29%
Concórdia scores more
16%

Caxias at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Caxias will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D: Caxias 2–0 Concórdia

Caxias beat Concórdia 2-0 in Serie D on May 14, 2023.

The match was played at Estádio Francisco Stédile in Caxias do Sul, Rio Grande do Sul.